On April 7, 2025, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a stark warning regarding the economic trajectory of the United States in the wake of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. In his highly anticipated annual letter to shareholders, Dimon emphasized that the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies, if left unmitigated, could tip the U.S. economy into a recession within the next year.
Dimon, a seasoned banking executive often regarded as the voice of moderation and pragmatism on Wall Street, did not mince words:
“We are playing with fire,” he wrote. “While protecting domestic industry is a noble goal, the scope and speed of these tariffs risk undermining the very foundation of our interconnected global economy.”
His remarks came just days after President Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports, further inflaming an already tense trade standoff. Dimon warned that such measures could have cascading effects on supply chains, consumer prices, capital markets, and business investment.
According to the letter, JPMorgan’s internal models forecast that if the full suite of tariffs is enacted and retaliatory actions from China continue, GDP growth could decline by as much as 1.5 percentage points, with unemployment ticking upward as key sectors such as manufacturing, retail, and transportation begin to shed jobs.
Dimon’s statements echoed growing concerns from business leaders across multiple sectors, who argue that while protectionist measures may provide short-term relief to select industries, they also introduce volatility, uncertainty, and inefficiency into the broader market.
At a press briefing held the same day in New York, Dimon elaborated on his warnings. Speaking to a packed room of reporters and investors, he said, “We are hearing from hundreds of our clients—small businesses, mid-sized exporters, even large manufacturers—who are now pausing expansion plans, slowing hiring, and rethinking international strategies. This is not fear-mongering; it is feedback from the ground.”
He also pushed back against the notion that corporate America is simply trying to protect profit margins:
“This is about working families, not just Wall Street earnings. When parts costs rise, those increases are passed down to everyday Americans. A $35 toaster becomes a $50 one. Multiply that across thousands of products, and you start to see the economic drag.”
Despite his criticism, Dimon acknowledged that some level of recalibration in trade relations with China was warranted, noting China’s history of intellectual property violations and state-backed economic interference. However, he advocated for a measured, multilateral approach, in coordination with allies and trading partners, rather than unilateral action that could isolate the U.S.
In Washington, White House officials downplayed Dimon’s letter, calling it “an expected response from globalist bankers.” In a Truth Social post, President Trump claimed Dimon “has always been wrong” and accused Wall Street executives of trying to “sabotage American strength to protect China.”
Nevertheless, Dimon’s voice carries weight. As head of the largest bank in the U.S., managing over $4 trillion in assets, his economic outlook is closely watched not just by investors, but by policymakers, central banks, and foreign governments.
Economists are now watching the Federal Reserve’s next move, with speculation mounting that interest rate cuts could return if the trade war continues to cool consumer spending and business confidence. Meanwhile, calls for congressional intervention are increasing, with a bipartisan group of lawmakers requesting an emergency hearing on the economic implications of the tariff war.
As Dimon concluded in his letter, “We must remain vigilant. The health of our economy—and the financial well-being of millions—depends on smart, balanced leadership. Now is the time for boldness, yes, but also for wisdom.”